September 25, 2009

Bottom's Up!

Posted to Julie Sarton

Or is it? After the fifth straight increase in the index of leading economic indicators for August, economists of the Conference Board are announcing that the US recession is bottoming out and a recovery is near. The four coincident indicators (industrial production, personal income, business sales, and nonfarm payrolls), designed to measure current activity, are the same ones used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) to judge whether the economy is growing or shrinking. Even though these coincident indicators have shown a gain in the last several months, the NBER is conservatively holding off on making a prediction for the end of the recession.

The big question is whether the housing recession, which started all of this, is finally bottoming out. There’s a wise saying: “You can recognize the bottom of any market by looking in the rear view mirror.” In other words, once the bottom is evident the market is usually on the way back up and you’ve missed it. Experience tells us that waiting for the bottom to make your buying decision is risky, since unless you react fast the market will leave you in the lurch.

So then how can buyers know the right time to buy? Aside from being aware of external indicators, such as the strengthening of the stock market, interest rates starting to inch back up, and the national media actually starting to report positive statistics, there are indicators specific to the real estate market to ask your realtor about. Is the inventory of listings starting to decrease and sell off? Are there fewer signs in your neighborhood or neighborhoods you would like to live in? Are the “days on market” for a listed home before it sells getting smaller? Are sales volumes in your agent’s company increasing? Are the number of showings of properties revving up? Are prices starting to stabilize instead of dropping? Are local banks becoming more willing to lend on properties? All markets are different, and historically the bottom of a market has a shorter duration than the top; most buyers make their purchase somewhere in between. Work with an agent that is knowledgeable about the current status of his or her market, as well as the overall market, and can help you analyze the indicators. There is abundant inventory available, the lowest interest rates in many years, motivated sellers, and the best affordability index in the history of that index…take advantage of it all!

Posted By: Julie Sarton



September 14, 2009

Special Delivery...Lake Geneva's Mail Boat

Posted to Area Attractions & Events, Geneva Lake Area , Julie Sarton

Having lived in Lake Geneva for 33 years, I’m like the New Yorker who never visits the Statue of Liberty. Rarely have I been on one of our many tour boats, and have always wondered what the ride would be like on the boat that delivers mail every day. With friends coming to our beautiful little lake this summer, I finally booked 4 tickets on the mail boat tour. Leaving the pier at 10:00 AM every morning from June 15 until September 15, the ‘Walworth’ provides the oldest continuous mail boat service in the United States and is the only delivery of its type. Seating around 150 passengers on its two decks, she circles the entire lake, cruising by 60 piers, never completely stopping. Young, athletic, female ‘mail persons’ literally jump off the boat onto these piers, run to the mail box, frantically stuff the mail in, and run to hop back on the boat before it passes by. If they don’t time their jumps perfectly, they will end up taking an unplanned swim. Obstacles, such as freshly painted or rain-slippery piers and overly friendly dogs, bring about gasps and applause from the passengers once overcome. Our favorite delivery was to an Irish setter waiting patiently at the end of the pier. After the mail was put into his mouth, he trotted happily away to take it to his owner, rewarded with cheers from the passengers.

In between deliveries, the Walworth captain and the mail person narrate the history of many of the stately homes passing by. An astonishing number of well known names such as Wrigley, Sears, and Montgomery Ward, keep surfacing, giving credence to the early reputation of Lake Geneva as a playground for the rich and famous. Flat screen TVs on board simultaneously show photos of the original, historic mansions as we pass them. It was a lovely cruise, a relaxing two hours, and my friends are now convinced that Wisconsin offers something other than cheese and cows!

Posted By: Julie Sarton